Should Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta continue at this pace, he's almost certain to receive a mega-deal when he hits free agency following the 2017 season. Until then, however, the Cubs have the exclusive right to make sure Arrieta never leaves. If the two sides can agree on a contract extension, Arrieta will continue his feel-good transformation with the organization.
While Arrieta's feel-good turnaround has been a great story, Arrieta isn't about to get nostalgic during contract negotiations. If the Cubs want him to sign a long-term deal, they are going to have to pay full price. Arrieta isn't willing to give them a hometown discount.
Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago asked Arrieta if he would consider signing with the Cubs at a discounted price, and Arrieta was pretty clear with his answer.
On Wednesday, Arrieta made clear that he wants to remain in Chicago and also that there won’t be a hometown discount for the Cubs.
“No,” was his emphatic answer to the direct question.
While some Cubs fans might not love that answer, it's tough to blame Arrieta for wanting fair-market value for his performance. It's worth noting that Arrieta is making a little over $10 million this season after receiving a raise in arbitration, but that pales in comparison to what he would receive on the free-agent market. Arrieta will make more next season after another round of arbitration, but, again, it will be nothing close to a free-agent contract.
That much should be obvious by looking at recent deals handed out to pitchers. Both David Price and Zack Greinke received contracts in excess of $200 million on the market. Stephen Strasburg didn't even hit the market, but just received a $175 million extension. It's assumed he would have gotten a lot more had he waited to become a free-agent.
Arrieta doesn't have the track record of Price or Greinke, and he's three years older than Strasburg, but a contract approaching $200 million wouldn't be out of the question. If he can put up similar numbers over the next year and a half, he would enter free agency with four seasons of ace-caliber production under his belt. Teams will be lining up to sign him to a huge deal the instant he becomes available.
[Elsewhere: How many games will the Chicago Cubs win during the regular season?]
The Cubs have the power to prevent that from happening, but it's going to cost them. Arrieta's improvement with the team is a fantastic story that inspires a lot of emotions. That's great, but it doesn't mean a thing during contract negotiations.
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